One Mission — Identify the Kentucky Derby Top-4 Finishers
KDTop4 analyzes final prep-race performance to identify horses aligned with historical Kentucky Derby Top-4 outcomes.
KDTop4 analyzes final prep-race performance to identify horses aligned with historical Kentucky Derby Top-4 outcomes.
The Kentucky Derby is unlike any other race—twenty horses, unfamiliar pace dynamics, and a longer distance than 3-year-olds have previously run. There is only one opportunity for things to go right—or very wrong. KDTop4 was developed to make sense of those Derby-specific complexities using data analytics, not hype.
KDTop4 focuses on how horses have actually performed in their final prep races under conditions that have historically aligned with success in the Kentucky Derby. Our data model evaluates race shape, running style, energy usage, and late-race performance under pressure, then compares those signals to what has worked in past Derbies.
The result is a clear, evidence-based view of which horses appear best positioned to finish in the Kentucky Derby Top-4—without attempting to predict a perfect order or offer betting advice.
Explore the model’s historical performance and decide how you want to use the information.
Final KDTop4 rankings for the 2026 Kentucky Derby will be released during Derby Week following the post-position draw and updated on Derby Day if field changes occur.
Our mission at KDTop4 is simple: identify the four horses most likely to finish in the Top 4 of the Kentucky Derby each year.
We do this by providing transparent, historically validated analytics that evaluate Derby entrants based on race archetypes, energy utilization patterns, and data points that have consistently mattered in past Kentucky Derbies.
Our focus is not on predicting a perfect order, but on identifying the actual Top-4 Kentucky Derby finishers — in as few horses as possible on our ranked list.
The Kentucky Derby is not a typical race.
Twenty horses. Multiple pace styles. Compressed positioning. Energy under pressure.
Most handicapping approaches evaluate horses in isolation.
The KDTop4 model evaluates the race first before scoring horses.
The KDTop4 model is built around three (3) structural principles:
Principle#1: Utilize a Kentucky Derby Specific System of Evaluation
Often times, traditional handicapping struggles in a 20-horse Derby environment. The KDTop4 model has been developed specifically to deal with the nuances of the Kentucky Derby.
Principle#2: Define the Race Environment
Every Kentucky Derby creates a unique competitive shape that determines how the race is likely to unfold. The level of pace pressure and the interaction of running styles influence which horse profiles are most likely to survive the Derby’s ten-furlong demands. Using final prep race energy data, KDTop4 projects the expected Race Environment and classifies the specific KDTop4 Race Archetype for the upcoming Derby — defining the competitive battlefield before ranking the field.
Principle #3 of KDTop4: Ranking the Field Inside the Race Environment
Once the race archetype is defined — and only then — we evaluate each horse’s core capability, energy utilization patterns, and performance under stress from their prep races. Those traits are interpreted and evaluated within the specific pressure demands of that year’s Kentucky Derby.
The Kentucky Derby is not evaluated on raw talent alone. Each individual Kentucky Derby is shaped by matchups and race environment.
What We Publish
During Derby Week, KDTop4 will release the Race Pressure Forecast and the official KDTop4 ranked list — identifying which horses are structurally positioned to finish in the Top Four. No predictions - no picks - just a ranked list for you to utilize.
Understanding the Kentucky Derby begins with understanding the battlefield. It requires recognizing the matchups, the projected pace environment, and how each horse’s energy utilization profile aligns with the specific demands of the upcoming Kentucky Derby.
Due to the unique demands of the Kentucky Derby, alignment with the race environment determines which horses hold an advantage.
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